Al-Zawahiri dead: bad timing?

Zawahiri’s assassination opens a pandora’s box
5th august 2022 jerusalem post

JPost article in English article in Italian

The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the lackluster, pedantic idealogue of Al-Qaeda, brings a strange closure to the US “War on Terror”, which started with 9/11. Egyptian born al-Zawahiri, was known to be a confidant of Saudi Osama bin Laden, who was America’s Public enemy number one, until he was found and killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, over 10 years ago.

The world had all but forgotten about al-Zawahiri and al-Qaeda. Once the primary global Islamic terrorist organization, the Al-Qaeda had become a footnote with more deadly organizations such as the ISIS taking its place. Islamic terrorism has also evolved extensively since Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri masterminded the attacks on 9/11. Al-Zawahiri neither had the finances nor the sophistication to upgrade to terrorism 4.0.

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Il momento dell’India nella diplomazia europea

Modi and Quad

Originale Affarinternazionali

L’India è diventata un centro di interessi molto attivo di recente, nonostante la sua posizione impopolare in occidente sulla Russia. Sulla scia della visita in India del primo ministro britannico Johnson, anche la presidente della Commissione europea, Ursula von der Leyen è stata a Delhi. Von der Leyen ha visitato la capitale indiana più volte in veste di politica e ministra della difesa tedesca, ma questa è stata la prima volta da presidente della Commissione europea.

La sua visita arriva in un momento difficile, momento in cui Boris Johnson, nonostante le proteste provenienti da diverse parti nel Regno Unito, è stato in India per incoraggiare la Enhanced Trade Partnership (ETP), che prevede il raddoppio del commercio tra Regno Unito e India entro il 2030, e i negoziati per l’accordo di libero scambio (FTA) tra Regno Unito e India, iniziati nel gennaio 2022. Secondo tutti i rapporti, la visita di Johnson ha avuto molto successo considerato che il punto cruciale della Brexit è stata proprio la concorrenza commerciale Ue-Uk, soprattutto nel Commonwealth, di cui l’India è membro, una comunità forte di 2,4 miliardi di persone.

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Will Di Maio’s visit to Delhi build on Von der Leyen’s momentum?

Will Di Maio’s visit to Delhi build on Von der Leyen’s momentum?

India has become a hub of activity recently, despite its unpopular position in the west on Russia. On the heels of UK Prime Minister Johnson’s visit to India, European Commission President, Ursula Von Der Leyen, now visits Delhi. Von der Leyen has visited the Indian capital several times as a German politician and defense minister, this is her first as the President of the European Commission. Her visit comes at a challenging time, as Boris Johnson, who despite protests from different segments in the UK, was in India to encourage trade and to push ahead the Enhanced Trade Partnership (ETP) which envisions doubling UK-India trade by 2030. He also was looking to boost the UK-India Free trade agreement negotiations (FTA) which started in January 2022. By all reports, Johnson’s visit was very successful and the crux of Brexit was the EU-British trade competition, especially in the 2.4 billion people strong commonwealth of which India is a member.

Boris Johnson in India

The United Kingdom was almost 100% supplier of India’s defense equipment in the 1950’s. In 2020, it was reduced to around 1% of the $70-80 billion that India spends annually on defense. Johnson was aiming at clawing back into the defense segment, which is lucrative for the UK and  had to be ignored during the UK’s EU membership, given competition rules.

Johnson tried, during his visit, to shore up the UK’s sales in this lucrative market while announcing investments in the Green economy, technology unicorns etc. to a tune of £1billion. Flying directly to Ahmedabad, the erstwhile capital of Gujarat, Prime Minister Modi’s home state and more importantly Mahatma Gandhi’s home state, Johnson all but atoned for all his predecessors’ actions in 190 years of colonialization with the show he put on, which frankly surprised experts and observers. What now remains to be seen is if Von Der leyen can triumph Johnson’s act and if Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio is able to continue with Von de Leyen’s momentum when he visits Delhi in May.

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“A dialogue on democracy” is launched.

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A dialogue on democracy is launched.

I was honoured to launch the “Dialogue on Democracy” with Fondazione Einaudi and Indian Council of Cultural Relations.

Democracy has grown from Abraham Lincoln’s description of a government “of the people, for the people and by the people” at Gettysburg. Over time this has evolved from selective suffrage to universal suffrage. Today in the digital age, democracy has become a constant rapport between governments and their constituents with flash plebiscites or referendums or polls conducted by political parties to measure the reaction of their proposals and actions within their electoral pool. While digital democracy has in one way, made governance more accountable, more transparent, and more inclusive, it has handicapped modern political decision making. While digital platforms today allow more information flow from the government bodies to the constituents and allow governments to measure the perception of the electorate, similarly fake news and “trial by social media” amputates the ability of the decision makers to take strategic decisions which may be unpopular in the short term however may be of great benefit to the country in the long term. Above all this also calls into the question the role of the platform and messenger which is usually a US based multinational which responds to US sensitivities and shareholders. Much like governance was corporatized in the 1600’s to private companies like the East India company, is democracy now being corporatized in the name of free speech and expression? European countries have had their challenges with social media and democracy and India, the world’s largest democracy is always in election mode, given the vastness of positions, governments to be elected. India conducts elections every year, to state legislatures or local governments. The panel “The future of democracy: Politics of the future”, aims to reinforce the motto of the Indian republic “Satya Meva Jayate (Truth always conquers)” celebrating the anniversary of the architect of the Indian constitution Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar, to discuss key issues facing India’s democracy and democracy in general. Speakers included Ambassador Dore Gold (President of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs & former Director General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, State of Israel), H.E Rajiv Chandrasekhar (Minister of State for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, Govt. of India), His Excellency Arif Mohamed Khan (Governor of Kerala, Republic of India), Sasmit Patra (Member of the Rajya Sabha, Parliament of India), Ambassador Giulio Terzi di Sant’Agatha (former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Italy), Nirj Deva (former Member of the European Parliament).

Ukraine: Who will bear the cross?

ukraine who will

Ukraine, the conflict now rages while it is more apparent that this is a proxy war fought at the doorsteps of Russia and Europe.

A comedian kickstarts his career with a parody. The story runs thus, a schoolteacher accidently getting himself elected as the President of his country when his students post his rant against the government online and crowdfund for his election. The show is so successful that four years later, the comedian really lands up in the top office. The plot doesn’t stop there, he takes on a feared, despised, and evil dictator, who decides to invade his country and …. (wins?). World leaders who tolerated the evil dictator and his evil, sidekick corrupt billionaires for decades rally with the upstart and move to send weapons and medicines to the besieged population while government employees in various countries which welcomed the evil empires evil money go to confiscate their yachts and arrest the billionaire cronies.

This isn’t the plot of “Argo returns” or a B-grade Hollywood film, but of the state of the world’s geopolitics. The script seems to have been written in the Obama White House in 2014 as an afterthought to the Maidan revolution, which brought western democracy to Ukraine and brought Ukraine to “NATO-sphere”.

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The second chapter of the Great Game: Kazakhstan

Barely five months into the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, central Asia is again in the news. The rapid rising tensions in Kazakhstan with violence on the street and the seeming sidetracking of longstanding Kazakh strongman and Putin ally Nursultan Nazarbayev, has left the world perplexed. Kazakhstan’s lack of human rights and Nazarbayev’s iron rule have been long ignored by the world, in a country which has known a single leader since the fall of communism. 

While the inspiration behind Kazakhstan’s revolution is uncertain, what is worrying global leaders and markets is the uncertainty this has created in central Asia. The country itself is strategic to global markets, speaking for 12% of the world’s uranium deposits and is the worlds largest uranium producer producing 40% of global uranium consumption. It is also China’s strategic ally and a key pawn and member of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China General Nuclear (CGN), a China state owned company on the US sanctions list, is one of the biggest players in the uranium mining industry in Kazakhstan. 

More importantly, Kazakhstan borders China and Russia by land and shares a sea border with Iran on the Caspiansea. The country also has key interests in the stability of Afghanistan and has been a strong Indian ally on the Afghan situation. Kazakh youth also are at risk of radicalization, given potential infiltration by Islamic radical groups, who have been attempting at creating a foothold on the borders with China and Russia. 

China and Russia: securing central Asia

The destabilization of Kazakhstan is currently mired in intrigue. Some analysts present a possibility that insiders, part of an elite close to the former President and leader of the nation “Elbasy”, organized the protests in an attempt to take over the Presidency from President Tokayev, who was appointed by Nazarbayev as his successor. The firing of Nazarbayev as the Chairman of the all powerful security council by Tokayev and the firing and arrest of Karim Masimov, a Nazarbayev loyalist, from his position of the head of the KNB (National Security Committee) point to Tokayev buying into the narrative that Nazarbayev and his loyalists were behind the protests.Sources also accuse Masimov of being associated with the Hizb ut-Tahrir, a global pan-Islamist, fundamentalist organization whose stated aim is to re-establish the Islamic caliphate globally.

However, with tensions rising between Russia and the NATO on Ukraine and friction between Belarus and the EU which is an extension of the Russian tensions with the US-it is hard to rule out a strong Russian and Chinese hand in destabilizing Kazakhstan. 

Both Russia and China, in the past year, have increased their bilateral cooperation partly due to their increasingfriction with the US. Both share growing concerns on the rise of Islamic radicalization on their borders, also due to the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban. China worries about Islamic extremism spreading in its Muslimmajority Xinjiang province, where it is accused of trying to eliminate the local Turkic Muslim population and Russia worries about Chechnya.  Despite China’s bonhomie with Pakistan, the country remains a nightmare to manage and China has been so far unable and unwilling to buy-into Pakistan’s control of Afghanistan and its Taliban and Haqqani led Emirate. 

While Nazarbayev has been a Russian and Putin ally for the past several decades, using him to destabilizeKazakhstan allows Russia to step in. His last reportedmeeting with Putin was on the 28th of December on the sidelines of an economic summit in St. Petersburg. 

This intrigue, moreover, offers additional insight into what may have moved Tokayev to appeal to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, to provide assistance in ending the ongoing unrest. As of January 7, thousands of elite troops from Russia, as well as a smaller number from Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, have been pouring into Kazakhstan, ostensibly with the task of guarding key strategic facilities, such as airports and important government buildings. This puts Russia and its allies in firm control of Kazakhstan-with it its resources of Uranium, oil and natural gas, all key for the west.

The role of China in this is still to be cleared. President Xi Jinping has been on an year long crackdown against Chinese oligarchs and the Chinese financial system. In an attempt to exert state control over the economic apparatus, Xi has conducted a massive crackdown against bitcoin and bitcoin mining. Most of this had moved to Kazakhstan with Chinese companies and individuals continuing to control the mining. Now thanks to the revolution, Kazakhstan is without internet and at times electricity, causing uncertainty for around 20% of bitcoin’s mining globally causing a crash in bitcoin prices with market cap of over $1 trillion being wiped off in a few days.

The Great Game: the second chapter, Kazakhstan

While the first chapter of the great game was Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul, the second chapter is being written in Kazakhstan. All this reduces the west’s and the US’s role in central Asia.

Italy has large petrochemical investments in Kazakhstan though ENI and in 2019 imported over $7 billion of crude and minerals from the central Asian country. It has tried to keep a strong relationship with the central Asian republics and Pakistan-also given its G20 presidency. With Russia primed to take direct control of strategic sites in Kazakhstan, Italy walks into a minefield, on one end with its alliance with the US and NATO which have issued ultimatum’s to Russia on its military buildup with Ukraine and on another end its investments in Kazakhstan and the importance the country has for the Italian role in Central Asia. Italy itself enters a period of political instability with its Presidential elections which may cause Mario Draghi, Italy’s savior and Prime Minister, being elevated to the ceremonial Presidential role. Mr. Draghi, enjoys broad-based political support in the Italian parliament and parties are unable to agree on a compromise candidate to replace him in his role as the Prime Minister. This would mean Italian reforms as well as its foreign policy under threat as Italy would go back to short lived coalition governments unable to enact reforms. Mr. Draghi has also been able to pivot Italy away from Chinese influence and firmly back into the US/EU/NATO corner. 

2022 begins with uncertainty in central Asia as the great game continues to write its second chapter. What started with the fall of Kabul on the 15th of August now has spread to Kazakhstan with protests reported also in Iran, putting a shadow on all of Central Asia. Whether Kazakhstan is Russia’s response to NATO’s ultimatum on Ukraine or a joint Russian-Chinese project to increase their strategic depth in central Asia, the next move is now decisive for the Biden White House. The West’s victory or defeat in the Great Game may depend on it.

Iran, Israel, India and so it goes.

The Iranian nuclear project, is one of those useless enterprises which amounts to nothing but keeps everyone busy. Iran is run by a group of almost senile revolutionaries and until it is-this wasteful project will continue along with the jingoistic calls to destroy Israel. It doesn’t matter that these days the Iranian navy is doing exercises with Israel’s two staunch allies, India and the UAE.

The younger generation of Iranian leaders, like Raisi, have to deal with the failure of a theocratic state. Repression in the age of the internet, isn’t cut out for sustainable success. What will be the compromise this time? Restitution of Syria to its place in the global order and peace with Assad?

Israel needs security despite this pointless nuclear journey and the west asian quad is that political blanket. The pointlessness of the obama deal is now more obvious. Before the revolution of the thirsty destroys the theocracy, we hope-that Iran will decide to bring itself back to the global order and give up the nuclear program to feed its masses.

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My article in JPOST on the 15th of December 2021

Mozart in Jerusalem 🎶

Jerusalem, Jerusalem

His double chin quivers
While his eyes count
Beads; an accountant counting cash
A lech undressing a voluptuous young woman
With his eyes.

His eyes, in a almost trance
His eyebrows arch
In an almost orgasm
While he suddenly awakens
To almost acknowledge his spectators.

With no hint of shame
He continues,
Not bound by bonds-
Of this world or any other

His pursuit
Holy and profane, divine and mundane
He alone, continues to make love
While all remain spellbound,
With the horror and awe
Waiting for him to slip up
While the chorus continues.

When he reaches his crescendo
there is rapt silence
With no one who knows ; How to react
While he raises his head to the heavens
Expecting an applause

With the audience starting a standing ovation
The pianist rises from his piano to take a bow.

mozart #piano #poetry #English